Asymmetric Impacts of Rainfall and Agricultural Production on Food Security in India

Article DOI: doi.org/10.66293/aayam.v16.i1.03

AUTHOR
Debesh Bhowmik *

KEYWORDS
Asymmetry, Rainfall, Food availability, Food production, Cumulative dynamic multiplier.

ABSTRACT
The paper tries to examine the nexus between food availability per capita per day,food production and average rainfall in India during 1951- 2023 under ARDL and NARDL model. Moreover,it also examined the asymmetric impacts of rainfall and food production on food security in India during the same period. It found that food availability is affected positively by distributed lag of rainfall and level of food production. In NARDL model,food availability is affected by positive and negative changes of rainfall and food production. There is no long run asymmetry of rainfall and food production on food availability in the long run but there is short run asymmetry where negative changes of cumulative dynamic multiplier of rainfall are positively related with food availability. On the contrary, there is no long run and short run asymmetry of food production on the food availability in India during 1951-2023. All these results are stable showing no heteroscedasticity and serial correlation problems.